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Prediction for CME (2024-03-25T15:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-03-25T15:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29798/-1
CME Note: Three-part CME with somewhat faint leading edge seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is an eruption centered at N27E50 from Active Region 13622. Opening field lines, a rising loop, and post eruptive-arcades can be seen in SDO AIA 171/193 at 2024-03-25T14:21Z. Post-eruptive brightening seen in SDO AIA 304 at 14:18Z. Widely opening field lines and small area of brightening seen in GOES SUVI 284 at 14:20Z. No clear arrival signature seen in solar wind at L1, however slight increases in signatures, around 2024-03-29T20:00 - 22:00 could indicate a compression zone and therefore a possible a CME glancing blow at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-29T14:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/29804/1
Model Inputs:
2024-03-25T15:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-50.0, Lat.=21.0, Speed=475.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2024-03-25T22:37Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-03-29T14:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-03-31T18:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-03-29T16:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240325_223700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240325_223700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240325_223700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240325_223700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240325_223700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240325_223700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240325_223700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240325_223700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240325_223700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240325_223700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240325_223700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240325_223700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240325_223700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240325_223700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 72.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-03-26T13:12Z

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